Oly on AI

FLF’s Epistemic Case Study Competition: Results

Awards and what’s next

Oct 1 • Oliver Sourbut

7

4

1

June 2026

Citations Needed

Magic Encyclopedias to Save the World

Jun 12 • Oliver Sourbut

13

2

5

Lab Leaks, Black Holes, and Eggs

FLF's Epistemic Case Study Competition

Jun 7 • Oliver Sourbut

5

May 2026

The main impact from automated AI production: concentration of power?

Not all at once, and perhaps not kept in the same hands that first held it

May 31 • Oliver Sourbut

3

1

A (Slightly) Mechanistic Theory for Exponentially Increasing AI Time Horizons?

AI ‘time horizons’ are mostly not about time (I think it’s mostly ‘data’, but you’ll see where I’m unsure)

May 24 • Oliver Sourbut

9

2

3

Engineering a Safer World

Risk Modelling — and Safety Engineering? — for AI Loss of Control

May 17 • Oliver Sourbut

7

6

3

Reinforcement learning scaling might incentivise hidden reasoning architectures for AI

Another reason really competent AI might lie to you

May 10 • Oliver Sourbut

3

2

How did ‘large’ language models get that way?

The role of Transformers and Pretraining in GPT

May 3 • Oliver Sourbut

2

1

April 2026

“Best humans still outperform”

One turning point in the history of cope around artificial intelligence

Apr 17 • Oliver Sourbut

4

1

Orders of magnitude: use semitones, not decibels

How I use a secret part of my brain for forbidden mathematics

Apr 1 • Oliver Sourbut

1

1

February 2026

January 2026

The First Type of Transformative AI?

Ask 'what will AI transform?', not 'when?'... and what choices do we have in that?

Jan 6 • Oliver Sourbut

7